The Tennessee, Vanderbilt basketball madness we couldve had and still could have

Tennessee, a team with the ingredients to reach the first Final Four in program history, loses its best player.

Vanderbilt, playing like the kind of team that reaches the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, loses its best player.

Tennessee, a team that came into the season with women’s Final Four hopes before losing one of its best players, gets an SEC Tournament win that hints at that potential again, before a title-game loss that reminds everyone of how much that player (Tamari Key) is missed.

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That’s the past week in college basketball in the state, and it changes things. Those three (UT men and women, Vandy men) and others in hoops-rich Tennessee have opportunity ahead. But the luck really is rotten around here. Did a hardwood hex happen? Maybe around the time No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee shocked No. 2 seed Michigan State to open the 2016 men’s tournament, one of the best March moments this state has seen?

Think of the missed opportunities, and lack of success, since that year. Two Sweet 16s in total, one each for the UT men and women. One tournament game for the Vanderbilt men — lost in 2017 to Northwestern on the unfortunate Matthew Fisher-Davis foul – and none for the Vanderbilt women. The Memphis men’s program, for years before that a true threat in this month, has one NCAA bid and one win.

Rick Barnes’ Vols have had other teams with “Final Four potential,” most notably the 2018-19 and 2021-22 teams. Purdue’s Ryan Cline buried the former from deep in the regional semis, and the latter failed to bury wide-open shot after wide-open shot in last year’s second-round upset loss to No. 11 seed Michigan. That team missed injured forward Olivier Nkamhoua, by the way, just as the 2017-18 team that fell to Sister Jean and Loyola Chicago in the second round could have used injured big man Kyle Alexander.

And just imagine what Bryce Drew’s 2018-19 Commodores could have been had Darius Garland not been lost early in the season to a knee injury. Something better than the team that got him fired, I’d wager. Imagine what Jerry Stackhouse’s Commodores could have been the past two seasons with a fully healthy Liam Robbins from start to finish. More on that later.

It isn’t all bad. Kellie Harper’s Lady Vols showed a lot over the weekend, especially in a 69-67 upset of potential No. 1 seed LSU, coming back from a 17-point deficit. Rickea Jackson and Jordan Horston were spectacular with 43 points and 20 rebounds between them, and Jillian Hollingshead came off the bench for some of the post presence UT has missed without Key.

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Those three led the way again in the program’s first SEC title game since 2015, against No. 1 and unbeaten South Carolina. The program’s first tourney title since 2014 was still in play midway through the third quarter, a six-point deficit, before Dawn Staley’s magnificent team pulled away for a 74-58 win. The question now is whether UT can sneak into one of the top 16 seeds and host for the first weekend of the tournament – as it did a year ago, beating Buffalo and Belmont (in a thriller) before losing to Louisville in the Sweet 16. It should be close.

Destinee Wells and Belmont might be back, by the way, after winning a game in each of the past two NCAA Tournaments — so close to two wins a year ago. Wells had 26 of her 31 in the second half of Saturday’s 70-67 comeback over Valparaiso to win the regular-season title. That’s Year 1 of playing up in the Missouri Valley Conference and one MVC title. If the Bruins can win the MVC tourney and No. 24-ranked MTSU women can win the Conference USA tourney next week, that’s two Nashville-area teams that could be real problems for a No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the first round. Chattanooga and Tennessee Tech also won their leagues and auto bids, and are likely looking at No. 16 seeds and attempts at historic upsets.

Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers project to make the field for a second straight year after an eight-year program drought, and Sunday’s 67-65 loss to No. 1 Houston illustrated why. Transfer point guard Kendric Davis has been one of the best at his position in the country, and the Tigers could be another scary No. 8 or No. 9 seed for a No. 1 seed in the round of 32. Gonzaga had to rally from a 12-point deficit a year ago to beat Memphis 82-78 in the round of 32.

The state’s two SEC teams both ended up 11-7 in conference play and tied for fourth place with Missouri. That sentence would have been too ridiculous to type out as a joke a month ago. But Vanderbilt has won eight of nine and Tennessee has lost six of 10. Both lost their best players to season-ending injuries in the past week. The feeling around both teams entering the SEC Tournament at Bridgestone Arena is very different, though, considering expectations and momentum.

Vols need to embrace bully ball to grind out an NCAA No. 3 seed

Rick Barnes considered the question Friday of how the Vols will adjust without sophomore point guard Zakai Zeigler, who was lost for the season early in last week’s win over Arkansas with a torn ACL. To boil down an extensive answer: as non-disruptively as possible.

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“We’ve got experience, we’ve got enough guys who can do what we need them to do, and if you change too much, guys can lose confidence, you know?” Barnes told The Athletic. “It’s a coach cliché about next man up and everything, but if you don’t adhere to that in some way you really do send a signal to the guys that you don’t want to send.”

The Vols can do a bit more switching at times on defense now, without worrying about having to help the diminutive Zeigler in a bad matchup. That’s pretty much the complete list of positives of losing their catalyst on both ends. This after the extended absences of Josiah James and Julian Phillips contributed heavily to the late-season downturn.

“I’ve never gone through a year like this,” Barnes said. “Ever.”

For 34 minutes of Saturday’s game at Auburn — which may have locked up a No. 3 seed and a first NCAA Tournament weekend in nearby Greensboro, N.C. — the Vols played to the formula without Zeigler. A variety of Vols initiated the offense, mostly Santiago Vescovi, and the ball was going inside — then back outside if necessary for high-percentage looks. The defense and rebounding were ferocious. A Vescovi jumper with 6:13 left made it 63-60 Tennessee against a talented, desperate team in a raucous home environment.

That would be UT’s last basket in a 79-70 loss. Early, ill-advised shots and confounding turnovers fed Auburn in transition. It was a late-game meltdown on the offensive end. And those happened too often even with Zeigler.

This team has wins over Kansas, Alabama and Texas — two projected No. 1 seeds and a team that is no worse than a No. 2 seed. Ingredients for March success, starting with that defense, exist. A No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament remains most likely. As does the No. 5 seed in the SEC Tournament. Four wins in four days will be required to repeat as champs. The more basketball the Vols can earn this week, the better.

Vanderbilt is on the bubble, but how many wins will it take?

Robbins’ leg fracture early in Wednesday’s game at Kentucky did not stop the Commodores from scoring a historic win that night, courtesy of two late buckets from Jordan Wright. That and the win over Tennessee are the two best wins of Jerry Stackhouse’s four seasons, easily, and they make him a viable candidate for SEC Coach of the Year.

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Vandy followed that up by outlasting another bubble team, Mississippi State, 77-72 on Saturday in the revived thunderdome that is Memorial Gym. That’s important because the NCAA selection committee is going to be talking about Vanderbilt. And the key question is always this: “Can this team win games in this tournament?”

Affirmation based on recent performance can overcome subpar metrics, and Vandy’s NET ranking (still just 82 despite several good wins) will have to be overcome.

Anyone who watched Robbins dominate on both ends during Vandy’s late-season surge would nod without hesitation to that question. Anyone watching Saturday saw where his rim protection and bucket-when-you-need-it knack were missed. Still, the Commodores prevailed.

Do that as the No. 6 seed in a potential rematch with No. 3 seed Kentucky on Friday and everyone will notice. Do it in the semifinals, especially if it’s against No. 2 seed Texas A&M, and get a ton of help with no bid thieves and poor weeks for other bubble teams, and you might not need to win four games in four days to claim the automatic bid.

Given how things usually go in this sport this week — and in this state — you probably do.

(Top photo of Tennessee guard Zakai Zeigler being helped off the court against Arkansas: Randy Sartin / USA Today)

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